Voters across the country will weigh in on dozens of tax-related ballot measures on Election Day. My colleagues and I at the Tax Foundation have summarized many of these measures here, and we will be tracking results on Election Night. Today, however, I wanted to provide an election-watching guide for November 3rd, and to highlight a few of the night’s key tax-related themes and storylines.
What to Watch
All times are Eastern Time
7:00 PM. Polls close in most of Florida (8 PM in the Panhandle), where voters will decide Amendment 3, creating a large homestead exemption. Florida results typically come in relatively quickly, and this is one to watch. If a large property tax reduction underperforms in Florida, that sends a message to policymakers across the country. Same thing—opposite message, and a significant upheaval of Florida’s property tax system—if it gets the 60% necessary to pass. Even a result in the high-50s could motivate lawmakers to pursue a similar measure on their own.
7:30 PM. Polls close in North Carolina, which has both an income tax cap amendment and a property tax levy limit on the ballot. Early votes post first, likely representing more than half of total votes cast; the Election Day vote comes later and may look different.
8:00 PM. Polls close in multiple states with tax-related ballot measures, but the one to watch is Oklahoma SQ 847, which would make the state’s existing assessment limits much more aggressive. Early and absentee votes should be reported quickly, but meaningful Election Day results should be in within an hour or two.
9:00 PM. Dueling Colorado measures which create a graduated-rate income tax and nullify it, respectively; plus Iowa’s Amendment 1, which imposes supermajority requirements for tax increases; and Wyoming’s Proposition 1, which would slash residential property tax burdens by adding an additional 50% exemption for home values, are among the 9 PM poll closings. In all three cases, meaningful results may take a couple of hours, but in Iowa, early divergence from statewide races might provide a hint. I’m skeptical that there’s much on-the-ground enthusiasm for the supermajority requirement. All three states typically have virtually complete unofficial results on Election Night.
11:00 PM. Polls close for the marquee event of the night, California Proposition 40 (the wealth tax), along with Washington’s I-645, repealing the pending high earners’ income tax. Both states rely heavily on mail-in voting, and California is notoriously slow in counting ballots. In California, mail-in ballots processed before Election Day will be reported first, followed by day-of voting, but only about 50-60% of the vote is likely to be tallied on Election Night, and the rest can take weeks, though changes adopted in 2025 should prevent the count from stretching into December. (In Washington, results typically take a few days, not weeks.) If the wealth tax vote is close, don’t wait up. Also, bear in mind that late-counted ballots in both states tend to be more progressive than those counted earlier.
Key Themes
Taxing High Earners and High Net Worth Individuals
California voters will decide whether to implement a one-time 5% wealth tax on billionaires (Proposition 40), and will also vote on two measures (Propositions 41 and 42) that would thwart the wealth tax if it passed, but with fewer votes than the competing measures. Washington voters will decide whether to repeal the state’s newly adopted 9.9% tax on income above $1 million, which is set to take effect in 2028. And in Massachusetts, voters will decide whether to count revenue from the state’s “millionaires tax” toward the state’s revenue limit.
Additionally, a California measure would make the state’s current top income rates (imposed temporarily, and already extended once) permanent, and a measure in Colorado would amend the constitution to allow a graduated-rate income tax, while simultaneously creating an initiated statute adopting such a tax, with a top rate of 8.4% on income above $1 million. A competing measure would override the new rate structure if it passed with more votes, but would not roll back the constitutional change.
Imposing New Restrictions on Tax Increases
California Proposition 43 applies a two-thirds vote requirement for local citizen tax initiatives, while a measure in Utah would require a 60% vote for tax initiatives to pass. Iowans will decide whether to require a two-thirds legislative supermajority to adopt income tax increases. And in Wisconsin, where creative partial vetoes have often been used to make substantial changes to legislatively adopted budget and tax provisions, a proposed constitutional amendment would prohibit the use of partial vetoes to increase taxes or fees.
Reducing Property Tax Burdens
November ballots feature three different approaches to property tax relief: larger homestead exemptions (Florida and Wyoming), stricter assessment limits (Oklahoma), and levy limits (North Carolina). In Wyoming, the proposed 50% exemption for the value of a primary home (just the house, not the land) would stack atop an existing 25% exemption of total property for most homeowners. In Florida, Amendment 3, combined with existing assessment limits, could take many homes entirely off the non-school property tax rolls.
Wyoming Calculator
To show just how significant the stacking effect of Wyoming Initiative 1 would be, I’ve created a calculator, which you can find here. For further analysis of the Wyoming measure’s effects, see my Tax Foundation blog post here.
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